Climate

Fig. ME.P.CC.01; Authors own, Portuguese Landscape Thumbnail.

RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION

As climate change accelerates, Portugal faces rising challenges concerning water scarcity, climate risks, and ecosystem degradation. Understanding these issues is crucial for recognising the impacts on communities.

How is climate change impacting Portugal?

Environmental Impacts

Water Scarcity

Portugal’s water table is sinking. A water table is the upper level of the saturated zone of groundwater, the point below the Earth's surface where all pores and spaces in the soil and rock are filled with water. This sinkage leads to wells running dry, land subsidence, and contamination of aquifers (a body of permeable rock which can contain or transmit groundwater). Essentially, Portugal’s main source of water is disappearing.

Experts attribute Portugal’s agricultural sector as a major contributor to the country’s growing water scarcity. Much of the industry depends on water-intensive crops and outdated irrigation methods that waste significant amounts of water. (Tridge, 2020)

In the Algarve region, a 600-hectare avocado plantation has drawn criticism from environmental organizations such as Quercus, which warn that avocados require exceptionally high amounts of water, particularly unsustainable in such a dry region.

(Tridge, 2020)

A desalination plant is currently under construction in the Algarve region and should be completed in 2026. Excessive and unregulated groundwater extraction in this region has caused saltwater to mix with the groundwater, rendering it unusable and damaging the soil. Desalination efforts and strict regulations are needed to prevent further damage to the ecosystem. (The Portugal News, 2025)

With a steady stream of water still coming out of taps, many people in Portugal remain unaware of the severity of the crisis. The hidden nature of groundwater depletion makes the problem easy to ignore, yet its consequences are far-reaching and long-lasting. Without significant changes in agricultural practices, stricter water management policies, and greater public awareness, Portugal risks facing irreversible damage to its ecosystems, food production, and long-term water security. The challenge now lies not only in developing technological solutions like desalination but also in fostering a cultural shift toward valuing and conserving one of the country’s most vital and vulnerable resources.

Fig. ME.P.CC.02; Authors own, Portugal Water Scarcity Painting (Jochen Faget, DW, 2023)

60% of Portugal’s drinking water is sourced from groundwater.
30% of tap water seeps into the ground unused due to outdated supply networks.
80% of the country’s drinking water is consumed by agriculture.
8% of Portugal’s drinking water is used on 40 golf courses
89% of Portugal’s land area is dry.
40% of Portugal is affected by severe drought.

Jochen Faget (DW, 2023)

Wildfires

Portugal is amongst the worst-affected countries in Europe by wildfires. Hot, dry summers and increasingly long fire seasons have left the country vulnerable. These fires do not just affect forests; they affect human lives, health, air quality, infrastructure, and erosion.

The 2024 fire season saw approximately 135,000 hectares of land burnt.

- The Associated Press, Sept. 2024

While it is unrealistic to believe that wildfires can be completely prevented, the human actions that have intensified the problem can be mitigated. In Portugal, wildfires are a natural part of the ecosystem and play a role in maintaining forest health. However, human intervention has drastically altered the landscape. The country’s €5 billion paper and cellulose industry depends heavily on eucalyptus plantations, fast-growing but highly flammable trees. Unfortunately, there are few effective regulations governing how these forests are managed. Many plantations are left abandoned, creating vast stretches of unmanaged eucalyptus that act as fuel for devastating fires and pose a serious threat to Portugal’s environment and communities. (France 24, Portugal: Eucalyptus Trees Under Fire 2018).

For more detailed Information on Portugal's wildfire susceptibility

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Fig.ME.P.CC.03; Authors own, Wildfire Susceptibility (European Soil Data Centre, accessed 2025)

Fig.ME.P.CC.04; Authors own, Eucalyptus & Pine (European Soil Data Centre, accessed 2025).

Fig.ME.P.CC.05; Authors own, Wildfire Susceptibility & Forest Growth Overlaid (European Soil Data Centre, accessed 2025).

Fig.ME.P.CC.06; Authors own, Frequency of Heatwaves over time (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, accessed 2025)

Heatwaves

Heatwaves have become both more frequent and severe. Not only do these extreme temperatures leave the landscape more vulnerable to drought and fire, but they also pose serious risks to public health, particularly for the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Prolonged heat can worsen air quality, especially following wildfires, leading to increased respiratory and cardiovascular problems. In addition, warmer conditions create favourable environments for the spread of vector-borne diseases, further compounding the health challenges brought on by Portugal’s rising temperatures. (Dr Ricardo Jorge National Health Institute, 2025).

Coastal Risks

Mainland Portugal’s coastline is approximately 1,115 miles long with many low-lying coastal zones that are susceptible to rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and storm surge. (Sul informacao, The issue of coastal erosion in Portugal, 2025)

'Under the COSMO Proggrame, the country has lost 1,313 hectares of coastal territory between 1958 and 2020'

'It’s estimated that a quarter of Portugal’s continental coastal zone is affected by intense erosion.'

(Sul informacao, The issue of coastal erosion in Portugal, 2025)

Fig.ME.P.CC.07; Authors own, Rising sea levels increase risk of flooding and therefore displacement (Melres, Portugal, 2025)

This endangers the infrastructure and ecosystems located near the coast, including roads, housing, ports, and wetlands that provide vital natural protection. As sea levels continue to rise and storms grow more frequent, coastal communities face increasing risks of flooding and displacement. Without stronger adaptation measures, such as managed retreat, dune restoration, and sustainable coastal planning, Portugal’s iconic shoreline and the livelihoods it supports may be irreversibly altered. (Sul informacao, The issue of coastal erosion in Portugal, 2025)

Socio-Economic Impacts

Agriculture and Food Security

The same problems threatening the ecosystem are affecting the food supply. Reduced water availability, heat stress, and soil degradation will result in more variable and likely lower crop yields. There may be a shift in which crops can be grown, with increased reliance on irrigation and higher costs. These factors may price out small farms, adding further stress to the already struggling agriculture sector.

Ultimately, without major improvements in water management, soil conservation, and crop adaptation strategies, Portugal’s agricultural sector risks entering a loop of declining productivity, increasing inequality, and reduced resilience to future climate shocks. (Policies for the Future of Farming and Food in the European Union, OECD, 2023)

Fig.ME.P.CC.08; Authors own, Projected Problems in Portuguese Agriculture (Policies for the Future of Farming and Food in the European Union, OECD, 2023)

Impacts on Infrastructure

Infrastructure such as the power grid, road and water supply are often not resilient enough for Portugal’s climate extremes. Many municipalities still lack comprehensive climate adaptation plans, leaving critical systems outdated or poorly maintained. Additionally, these infrastructure issues disproportionately impact poor and rural communities that are often unable to bear the cost of adapting. This growing disparity deepens social inequality, leaving the most vulnerable groups exposed to the escalating effects of climate change. (Climate Adapt, 2023) (European Investment Bank, “Two-thirds of Portuguese respondents view climate adaptation as a national priority, EIB survey shows”, 2024)

Fig.ME.P.CC.09; Authors own, Infrastructure Stress Sketch.

Case Study: Lisbon

In 1755, a sudden and devastating earthquake struck Lisbon. The resulting tsunami and fire destroyed about two-thirds of the city. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives, and Lisbon was left in ruins. At the time, Lisbon was the capital of a vast colonial empire and enjoyed its wealth, due to the city's strategic position in this empire, news of the disaster spread worldwide. It was one of the first global catastrophes to garner worldwide attention.

The Chief Minister of King Joseph I, the Marquis of Pombal, took an unprecedented approach to rebuilding the city. Instead of rebuilding Lisbon to its former state, he chose to conduct public surveys to understand the events, possible causes, and create solutions to better prepare the city for the future. His actions are credited with the birth of Seismology.

(Stories in Science, “The 1755 Lisbon Earthquake: Marquis Pombal Uses Science to Rebuild”, accessed 2025)

This response is an early example of designing for resilience through reason and evidence. Rather than simply reacting to the disaster, he crowdsourced information, questioned the root causes, and applied Enlightenment principles of observation, inquiry, and rational planning to guide reconstruction. His approach transformed Lisbon into a model of modern urban design, with wider streets, open squares, and planned evacuation routes from the coast. (Stories in Science, “The 1755 Lisbon Earthquake: Marquis Pombal Uses Science to Rebuild”, accessed 2025)

Fig.ME.P.CC.10; Lisbon Tsunami, 1755 (Woodcut , The Granger, 1755)