Climate

Fig. ME.S.CC. 01; Author's Own, Climate Sketch

RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION

Climate change is a key consideration in architectural design, and understanding its impacts is essential when working with vulnerable communities.

What are the key climate issues facing Scotland, and how are these being addressed?

Forestry

Forests act as both a material and ecological resource, as well as acting as a carbon sink. They cover 19% of Scotland’s land area, equivalent to approximately 1.49 million hectares, and contain over half of the UK’s total forest carbon stock, estimated at roughly 2 billion tonnes of CO₂ (Scottish Government, 2024).

‘Each year, Scottish woodlands sequester an estimated 7.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, offsetting 14% of national emissions.’

(Forestry and Land Scotland, 2024)

Beyond their role in carbon storing, forests support biodiversity and contribute to flood management, aligning with wider government objectives for nature restoration. However, land availability, labour shortages and the planning timescales continue to limit progress.

‘While the Climate Change Plan set targets for up to 18,000 hectares of new woodland each year, recent figures show that only 8,470 hectares were created in 2024-25, less than half of the target.’

(Forestry and Land Scotland, 2024)

There is increasing attention on timber innovation and bio based construction, indicating a shift away from viewing forestry primarily as a carbon offset mechanism. Instead, it is understood as part of a broader climate transition framework that links ecological restoration with economic activity, aligning with principles of green economic growth.

Fig. ME.S.CC.08; Author's Own, Map of Scotland's Forested Areas

Changing Weather

Climate change has had a notable effect on weather patterns. Average temperatures in Scotland between 2010 and 2019 increased by 0.7°C compared to the 1960-1990 average. Over the same period rainfall has increased by 9% (Metoffice.gov.uk, Accessed 2025).

These changes have increased flood risk, with some communities experiencing damage or temporary isolation, particularly in rural areas. The adjacent graph shows regional differences in exposure to river, coastal and surface water flooding across Scotland, measured by the extent to which residential areas are affected rather than total land area (Metoffice.gov.uk, Accessed 2025). Recent examples of major weather events and their impact include:

Fig. ME.S.CC.02; Town of Brechin after Storm Babet, 2023

Fig. ME.S.CC.03; Example of the effects of Storm Eowyn

2023 - Storm Babet: A violent storm that struck the UK, causing widespread damage and leading to the loss of seven life’s. Hundreds of homes and businesses were flooded, with the town of Brechin most affected after flood defences failed. In addition, approximately 30,000 homes lost power and farmers reported to losses to crops and livestock. (Metoffice.gov.uk, Accessed 2025).

2025 - Storm Eowyn: The most powerful windstorm the UK has experienced in over a decade saw winds reaching up to 100mph. Approximately one million homes were affected by power outages. There were widespread property damage, and fatalities were recorded in Ayrshire. (Metoffice.gov.uk, Accessed 2025).

Fig. ME.S.CC.04; Flooding Classification and severity across Scottish Districts

(Scottish Government, 2025)

Coastal Erosion

The majority of Scotland’s 18,000km coastline is considered broadly stable, as approximately 70% is classified as hard coast, consisting mainly of cliffs and rocky shorelines. (Coastal Erosion. Nature.Scot. Accessed 2025)

However, approximately 12% of the coastline is currently eroding. This presents a significant risk in the coastal town of Montrose, where the beach is reported to be eroding by approximately 7 metres per year. Combined with the rising sea levels linked to global warming, this erosion threatens historic landmarks and residential areas. (BBC, 2024).

Fig. ME.S.CC.05; Author's Own, Flooding Sketch

"In Scotland, more than 93,000 residential and commercial properties are at risk of coastal flooding and erosion"

-Aggregate Industries (PBC Today, accessed 2025)

Fig. ME.S.CC.06; Author's Own, Rising Sea Levels Sketch

Net Zero Ambitions

Net Zero refers to the balance between the amount of carbon dioxide produced and the amount absorbed, reducing overall impact on climate change.

145 nations worldwide have announced intentions to reach net zero targets within a defined timeframe. The Scottish Government is included among these, although missed interim targets have led to deadlines being pushed back, with the current target set for 2045 (Climate change: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029. Gov.scot. Sept 25, 2024).

“We are determined to achieving net zero in a way that distributes the costs and benefits fairly, and which tackles inequality and injustice.”

- The Scottish Government in the Climate Change Policy (Climate change: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029. Gov.scot. Sept 25, 2024).

Fig. ME.S.CC.09; Author's Own, Scotland's Missed Targets For Net-Zero

(Uses data from; Climate change: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029. Gov.scot. Sept 25, 2024).

Ecosystems

Scotland’s ecosystems are under increasing pressure as the climate crisis contributes to a variety of environmental impacts. Monitoring shows a 15% decline in average species abundance since 1994, with approximately one in nine species classified as threatened with national extinction.

One of the main concerns is Scotland’s seabirds, which declined by 49% between 1986 and 2019. This data predates the impacts of avian flu, which has since further reduced their numbers (State of Nature Partnership News Release, Nature.scot, 2023). Rising temperatures also increase the risk of new pests and diseases becoming established, posing a risk to ecosystems (Climate Change impacts in Scotland, Adaption.scot, Accessed 2025).

As a result, design decisions should consider their impact on existing ecosystems, both through site selection where nature is already thriving and through the integration of nature into proposals, particularly given the pressures outlined above.

"Traditional methods of construction and architectural design can negatively impact the environment"

-(Base, The Role of Architectural Design in Sustainable Living, 2024)

Fig. ME.S.CC.07; Author's Own, Key Natural Species Around Scotland

(Multiple Images referenced, see full list in list of figures)