Demographics

RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION

Understanding Scotland’s population trends is crucial for assessing how future changes may affect pressures on infrastructure. For example, an aging population will increase demand on healthcare services, as older age groups rely on these services the most.

How do Scotland’s population trends affect future systems?

Population

Scotland’s population is rising overall but growth is uneven between rural areas and urban centres. On 30th June 2024, the population reached 5.55 million, with a 0.7% increase in 2024.

The largest cities grew fastest: Glasgow City rose by 1.8% (11,540 people) and the City of Edinburgh by 1.2% (6,540 people).

By contrast, less densely populated and rural areas saw decline. The largest falls occurred in Argyll and Bute at -0.3% (270 people), Angus at -0.1% (140 people), and Dundee City at -0.1%. Glasgow City had the highest population in 2024 at 650,300, while the three island council areas had the lowest, with the Outer Hebrides at 26,020.

The Scottish education system, though recognised for its inclusive principles and free university tuition for Scottish students, faces persistent challenges. Data shows a widening performance gap between students from deprived and affluent backgrounds (38.4% for higher qualifications), with those from deprived areas less likely to achieve higher qualifications or progress to university (Attainment gap widens in Scottish schools. Bbc.co.uk. Feb 25, 2025). (Mid-2024 Population Estimates. Nrscotland.gov.uk. 2025).

Aging Population

Scotland has an increasingly aging population. In 2024, An estimated 20.5% of the population were aged 65 and over, an increase from 16.2% since 2004. The number of people aged 0 to 15 had also decreased from 18.4% in 2004 to 16.2% in 2024.

Furthermore, there were more deaths than births. There were 46,400 births and 62,000 deaths in 2024, resulting in a natural change of 15,700.

The cities in Scotland, based on 2024, have higher percentages of people aged 16-64 and the lowest percentages of people aged 65 and over. Whilst the rural and island areas show an older age profile.

The highest percentages of people aged 65 and over are in Dumfries and Galloway (28%), Argyll and Bute (27.7%), the Scottish Borders (27.4%) and the Outer Hebrides (27.4%). Many of the areas that experienced a large decrease in the population of people aged 0 to 15 also saw a significant decline in the population aged 16 to 64, including the Outer Hebrides, North Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway, and Angus. (Mid-2024 Population Estimates. Nrscotland.gov.uk. 2025).

Migration

Migration has become one of the main drivers of Scotland’s population growth, with more people moving to Scotland than leaving in recent years. The net migration in Scotland in 2023 was higher than it had been in any other year in the past decade. This was due to an increased rate of international migration resulting from many factors; growing number of international students travelling from outside the EU, changes in immigration policies for non-EU citizens, a greater demand for skills and labour and global displacement because of humanitarian crises.

In 2023: International migration was +42,600 and elsewhere from within the UK Migration was +13,800. 61,600 more people moved to Scotland than left.

In 2024: 124,600 people moved to Scotland whilst 68,200 people moved out of Scotland which resulted in a net migration of +56,400 people. (Mid-2024 Population Estimates. Nrscotland.gov.uk. 2025).

Youth Migration

Young people continue to leave rural areas for education and work in cities, creating challenges for the sustainability of rural communities. This long-standing migration, particularly affecting the islands, places financial and social strain on places where many leave to study or seek employment. As the working-age population declines, communities struggle to support growing older populations, especially in the Outer Hebrides, where 27% of residents are aged 65+.

Although often described as a ‘brain drain’, the pattern is more complex and can be seen as ‘brain rotation’. Young people may leave to gain education and experience but do not necessarily stay away.

People aged 15–29 make up only 16% of the population in the Highlands and Islands, compared with the Scottish average of 20%, showing how few remain in rural areas. Between 2010 and 2012, Argyll and the Islands lost around 240 people aged 17–20, the typical university age. Yet over a third of island graduates return home within six months of finishing university, a trend that can benefit communities if enough jobs, housing, and transport are available to support returners.

However, in smaller islands such as South Uist, where the population fell from 1,754 to 1,650 between 2011 and 2022, it remains difficult to maintain balanced communities because of limited opportunities for those wishing to return (Rosie Alexander. Reconceptualising Scottish Island Youth Migration. Euppublishing.com. 2025).