Demographics

Fig.ME.S.DE.01; Authors Own, 'Demographics Sketch'

RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION

Understanding Scotland’s population trends is crucial for assessing how future changes may affect pressures on infrastructure. For example, an aging population will increase demand on healthcare services, as older age groups rely on these services the most.

How do Scotland’s population trends affect future systems?

General Population

Scotland’s population is steadily increasing, but growth is uneven between urban and rural areas. The largest cities have grown the fastest, with Glasgow’s population increasing by 1.8%, while rural areas have experienced a population decline, such as Argyll and Bute at -0.3%.

This trend is largely driven by a lack of opportunities, with young people in particular leaving for education and employment in more densely populated areas. The Scottish islands are especially affected, placing financial and social strain on the communities left behind. As a result of youth migration, the working age population has declined in rural areas, making it more difficult for communities to support an ageing population.

Although often described as a ‘brain drain’, this pattern is more complex and can be understood as ‘brain rotation’. While outward movement occurs, return rates are also high, with over a third of island graduates returning home within six months of finishing university. This pattern can benefit communities if sufficient housing and infrastructure is available to support returners (Mid-2024 Population Estimates. Nrscotland.gov.uk. 2025).

Diagram Sources

Fig.ME.S.DE.03; Authors Own, 'Brain Rotation'(Mid-2024 Population Estimates, National Records of Scotland, 2025) (Council Area Profile:Angus, National Records of Scotland, 2025)

Fig.ME.S.DE.04; Authors Own, 'Scottish Demographics'(Council Area Profile: Highland, National Records of Scotland, 2025)(Council Area Profile: Na h-Eileanan Siar, National Records of Scotland, 2025)

Fig.ME.S.DE.02; Authors Own, 'Brain Rotation'

Fig.ME.S.DE.03; Authors Own, 'Scottish Demographics'

Ageing Population

Scotland is experiencing an ageing population. In 2024, an estimated 20.5% of the population was aged 65 and over, an increase from 16.2% since 2004. This trend is driven by longer life expectancy and lower birth rates.

An older population places increased pressure on public services, particularly healthcare, as demand for support rises with age (Dr Alison Clement, Interview hosted by Ryan Smith, 2025). This effect is especially pronounced in the Outer Hebrides, where 27% of residents are aged 65 or over. When combined with youth migration, this presents a significant challenge for the future of Scotland’s infrastructure. (Mid-2024 Population Estimates. Nrscotland.gov.uk. 2025).

Demographics Scotland_Aging Populations.png

Fig.ME.S.DE.05; Authors Own, 'Scottish Demographics: Ageing Population'

(Mid-2024 Population Estimates, National Records of Scotland, 2025 ).

(Council Area Profile:Angus, National Records of Scotland, 2025)

(Council Area Profile: Highland, National Records of Scotland, 2025)

(Council Area Profile: Na h-Eileanan Siar, National Records of Scotland, 2025)

Migration

Migration has become one of the main drivers of Scotland’s population growth, with inward migration exceeding outward movement in recent years. Net migration rose sharply in 2023 and has remained at a consistent rate since, driven by an increase in international students, changes in immigration policy, growing demand for skills and labour, and rising levels of global displacement (Mid-2024 Population Estimates. Nrscotland.gov.uk. 2025).

Migration statistics from 2024, showing a net migration of +56,400 people

Fig.ME.S.DE.06; Authors Own, 'Migration Statistics', based on, (National Records of Scotland, 2025)

Deprivation

Deprivation in Scotland is measured through the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), which ranks areas according to factors such as; household income, employment, health, education, housing, geographic access to services and crime.

Current estimates suggest that 20% of Scotland’s population (1,070,000 people) live in relative poverty, defined as a household income below 60% of the national average.

16% (890,000 people) live in absolute poverty, lacking basic human requirements.

(Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020, accessed 2025)

The most deprived areas are typically found in large urban centres across the Central Belt. However, in remote and rural areas, deprivation is often shaped differently, with geographic access playing a significant role in SIMD rankings due to the centralisation of services across Scotland (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. simd.scot. 2025).

Fig.ME.S.DE.07; Authors Own, 'Scotland Deprivation Map', based on, (SIMD 2020)