Demographics

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

ABOUT

Portugal is facing significant demographic pressures that shape access to services, local resilience, and long-term development. Low birth rates, an ageing population, and the movement of young people towards coastal cities have left many rural regions declining and sparsely populated. These shifts deepen regional inequalities, weaken local economies, and place increasing strain on essential services, making it crucial to understand how demographic change affects communities across the country.

How does Portugal’s population trends impact community sustainability?

Population

Portugal’s population has increased overall in recent decades, but growth is unevenly distributed between coastal urban centres and inland rural areas. In 2024, the population reached around 10.75 million, up from 8.9 million in 1960, an overall increase of about 21%.

The largest cities grew the fastest: Lisbon recorded 575,739 residents in 2024, with its wider metropolitan area reaching approximately 3 million people. Porto, home to around 252,700 residents, anchors a metropolitan region of about 1.8 million (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2025). These urban areas continue to attract both internal and international migration, sustaining their expansion.

By contrast, less densely populated and rural areas saw decline. Many inland and low-density regions particularly in Alentejo, the interior Centro region, and northern border municipalities have faced long-term population loss. Some areas have seen reductions of 40% or more over the past three decades due to ageing populations, low birth rates, and youth migration. Several municipalities, including Idanha-a-Nova, Sabugal, Barrancos, and Mourão, now record some of the lowest population levels and fastest rates of decline, highlighting a sharp demographic contrast between the dynamic coastal cities and the increasingly depopulated interior.

However Portugal’s population is projected to fall by 2.4 million by 2100, due to a falling birth rate, and emigration, it is described as having “one of the fastest declining populations in Europe”, which could have a big impact on future systems.

Aging Population

In 2024, the proportion of young people in Portugal continued to decline. The share of the population aged 0 to 14 years fell from 14.2% in 2014 to 12.6% in 2024. In contrast, the proportion of people aged 65 and over rose significantly, increasing from 20.9% to 24.3%, highlighting ongoing population ageing.

In 2024, there were 84,642 births, a 1.2% decrease from 2023, and 118,374 deaths, slightly higher than the previous year. This resulted in a natural population deficit, continuing a long-standing trend of negative natural change due to low fertility rates and an ageing population.

Based on 2024 data, Lisbon and Porto metropolitan regions, have higher percentages of people aged 15–64 and lower proportions of residents aged 65 and over, driven by stronger labour markets and higher levels of internal and international migration. In contrast, rural and interior regions, especially in the Centro and Alentejo regions, show a markedly older age profile. Some of the highest percentages of people aged 65 and over are found in municipalities such as Idanha-a-Nova, Sabugal, Mourão, Barrancos, and Portel, where the elderly population often exceeds 30%.

According to long-term projections from Statistics Portugal (INE), the resident population is expected to fall from around 10.7 million today to approximately 8.3 million by the end of the century under a central scenario. By 2100, several interior municipalities may lose more than half their current population, further widening the demographic divide between Portugal’s dynamic coastal urban centres and its ageing, increasingly underpopulated interior.

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Migration

Migration has become a significant factor shaping Portugal’s recent demographic trends, with more people moving to Portugal than leaving in both 2023 and 2024. These years recorded some of the highest net migration levels in the country’s recent history.

In 2022: Immigrants in Portugal came from nearly 190 nationalities, with the largest groups arriving from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Cape Verde, India, Italy, Angola, France, Ukraine, Nepal and Guinea-Bissau. This growing diversity reflects a wider range of reasons for moving to Portugal, including education, retirement and lifestyle changes. Portugal has also attracted more highly skilled and financially secure migrants, drawn by its safety, quality of life, relatively low living costs, favourable immigration policies and tax incentives, as well as post-Brexit relocations from the UK. (Fonseca 2024).

In 2023: Permanent immigration was 189,367 and permanent emigration was 33,666, resulting in a net migration gain of +155,701 people. (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2024).

In 2024: With 177,557 arrivals and 33,916 departures, Portugal recorded a net migration of +143,641 people, reinforcing the growing demographic impact of international migration (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2025).

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Youth Migration

At the same time, Portugal continues to face substantial levels of youth emigration. According to the Portuguese National Statistics Institute (INE), nearly 1.5 million young people aged 15–29 have left the country in the past decade. Several factors contribute to this ongoing outflow, including limited job opportunities, comparatively low wages, and perceptions of restricted career progression.

Young people continue to leave Portugal’s rural regions in search of education and employment in larger cities or abroad, creating major challenges for the long-term sustainability of inland communities. This trend particularly strong in the interior Centro region, Alentejo, and northern border municipalities places growing pressure on areas where the working-age population is shrinking. Many rural municipalities now have 28–30% of residents aged 65+, well above the national average, leading to the closure of schools, healthcare centres, and other essential services. (Suavinha et al. 2024).

For decades, young people have moved from inland regions to major urban centres such as Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra, and Braga. As a result, people aged 15–29 make up only 14–16% of the population in many inland areas, compared with much higher proportions in coastal metropolitan regions. Between 2010 and 2020, some interior municipalities lost over 20–30% of their young adults, especially those aged 18–24 leaving for university or early-career opportunities.

Meanwhile, Portugal’s largest cities face the opposite problem: population concentration, rising housing demand, and pressure on public services. In cities like Lisbon and Porto, overpopulation contributes to environmental strain, congestion, and a shortage of decent, affordable housing, deepening the demographic imbalance between coast and interior.

In smaller and more remote areas such as Alentejo profundo, the Beira Interior, and municipalities like Idanha-a-Nova, Mourão, and Sabugal declining youth numbers, service closures, and limited job opportunities make it difficult to maintain balanced communities or attract returnees, reinforcing the cycle of depopulation.

High levels of youth emigration leave Portugal with an aging population