Demographics

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

Fig.ME.P.DE.08; Authors Own, 'Demographics Sketch'

RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION

Portugal is facing significant demographic pressures that shape access to services, local resilience, and long-term development. Low birth rates, an ageing population, and the movement of young people towards coastal cities have left many rural regions declining and sparsely populated. These shifts deepen regional inequalities, weaken local economies, and place increasing strain on essential services, making it crucial to understand how demographic change affects communities across the country.

How does Portugal’s population trends impact community sustainability?

By contrast, less densely populated and rural areas saw decline. Many inland and low-density regions, particularly Alentejo, the interior Centro region, and the Northern border municipalities, have faced long-term population loss. Some areas have seen reductions of 40% or more over the past three decades due to ageing populations, low birth rates, and youth migration. Several municipalities, including Idanha-a-Nova, Sabugal, Barrancos, and Mourão, now record some of the lowest population levels and fastest rates of decline, highlighting a sharp demographic contrast between the dynamic coastal cities and the increasingly depopulated interior.

Current predictions estimate that Portugal’s population is projected to fall by 2.4 million by 2100, due namely to falling birth rates, and emigration. It is described as having “one of the fastest declining populations in Europe” (Centre for Policy Studies, 2015), which will have a dramatic impact on future systems.

Fig.ME.P.DE.02; 'Portugal Population Density'

Population

Portugal’s population has seen steady growth in recent decades, however this is unevenly distributed between coastal urban centres and inland rural areas. In 2024, the population reached around 10.75 million, up from 8.9 million in 1960, an overall increase of about 21%.

Fig.ME.P.DE.01; 'Portugal Population Growth since 1890'

The largest cities grew the fastest: Lisbon recorded 575,000 residents in 2024, with its wider metropolitan area reaching approximately 3 million people. Porto, home to around 252,000 residents, anchors a metropolitan region of about 1.8 million (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2025). These urban areas continue to attract both internal and international migration, sustaining their expansion.

Fig.ME.P.DE.03; 'Portugal Demographics'

Diagram Sources

Fig.ME.P.DE.01; Authors Own, 'Portugal Population Growth since 1890', based on(Wikimedia Commons, Data: Portugal Total Population.tab, 2025)

Fig.ME.P.DE.02; Authors Own, 'Portugals Population Density', based on, (World Population Density Interactive Map, LuminoCity3D, 2020)

Fig.ME.P.DE.03; Authors Own, 'Portugals Demographics', based on, ("Census 2021", Instituto Nacional De Estatistica Statistics Portugal, 2021)

Rural & Youth Exodus

Fig.ME.P.DE.06; High levels of youth migration leave Portugal with an aging population

In the past decade there has been a notable shift in youth demographics from rural to urban areas, in search of education and employment in larger cities or abroad. According to the Portuguese National Statistics Institute (INE), nearly 1.5 million young people aged 15–29 have left the country in the past decade. Several factors contribute to this ongoing outflow, including limited job opportunities, comparatively low wages, and perceptions of restricted career progression. According to long-term projections from the INE, the resident population is expected to fall from around 10.7 million today to approximately 8.3 million by the end of the century.

Between 2010 and 2020, some interior municipalities lost over 20–30% of their young adults, especially those aged 18–24 leaving for university or early-career opportunities.

(Suavinha et al. 2024)

Fig.ME.P.DE.05; Portugal's increased elderly dependency age ratio out of 100

This is even more evident in rural inland areas, where the remaining populations are increasingly older, leaving local villages and parishes comprised of 28-30% of residents aged 65+, well above the national average. This puts growing pressure on areas where the working-age population is shrinking as a direct result of youth migration to greater urban areas. Consequently, many municipalities are forced to close schools, healthcare centres, and other essential services. (Suavinha et al. 2024).

By 2100, several interior municipalities may lose more than half their current population, further widening the demographic divide between Portugal’s dynamic, coastal urban centres and its ageing, increasingly underpopulated interior.

For decades, young people have moved from inland regions to major urban centres such as Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra, and Braga. As a result, people aged 15–29 contribute only 14–16% of the population in many inland areas, compared with much higher proportions in coastal metropolitan regions. This leads to Portugal’s largest cities facing the opposite problem: population concentration, rising housing demand, and pressure on public services. In cities like Lisbon and Porto, overpopulation contributes to environmental strain, congestion, and a shortage of decent, affordable housing, deepening the demographic imbalance between coast and interior.

This is exacerbated by the general proportion of young people in Portugal continuing to decline. The share of the population aged 0 to 14 years fell from 14.2% in 2014 to 12.6% in 2024. In contrast, the proportion of people aged 65 and over rose significantly, increasing from 20.9% to 24.3%.

In 2024, there were 84,642 births, a 1.2% decrease from 2023, and 118,374 deaths, slightly higher than the previous year. This resulted in a natural population deficit, continuing a long-standing trend of negative natural change due to low fertility rates and an ageing population.

Demographics_Portugal_Aging Populations.png

Fig.ME.P.DE.07; Portuguese Populations over 65

Diagram Sources

Fig.ME.P.DE.05; Authors Own, 'Portugal's increased elderly dependency age ratio out of 100', based on, (Instituto Nacional De Estatística Statistics Portugal, 2025)

Fig.ME.P.DE.06; Authors Own, 'High levels of youth migration leave Portugal with an aging population', based on,("Census 2021", Instituto Nacional De Estatistica Statistics Portugal, 2021)

Fig.ME.P.DE.07; Authors Own, 'Portuguese Populations over 65', based on, ("Census 2021", Instituto Nacional De Estatistica Statistics Portugal, 2021)

Migration

Migration has become a significant factor shaping Portugal’s recent demographic trends, with more people moving to Portugal than leaving in both 2023 and 2024. These years recorded some of the highest net migration levels in the country’s recent history.

2022: Portugal received immigrants from nearly 190 nationalities, with the largest groups arriving from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Cape Verde, India, Italy, Angola, France, Ukraine, Nepal and Guinea-Bissau. This growing diversity reflects a wide range of reasons for moving to Portugal, such as education opportunities, retirement and lifestyle changes. Portugal is also an attractive prospect for highly skilled and financially secure migrants, drawn by its safety, quality of life, relatively low living costs, favourable immigration policies and tax incentives, as well as post-Brexit relocations from the UK. (Fonseca 2024).

2023: Permanent immigration was 189,367 and permanent emigration was 33,666, resulting in a net migration gain of +155,701 people. (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2024).

2024: With 177,557 arrivals and 33,916 departures, Portugal recorded a net migration of +143,641 people, reinforcing the growing demographic impact of international migration (Instituto Nacional de Estatística 2025).

People Moving to and from Portugal, 2024

Diagram Sources

Fig.ME.P.DE.04; Authors Own, 'People Moving to and from Portugal, 2024', based on, (Net Migration, Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 2025),

(Resident Population, Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 2025)